Judd Legum of Think Progress has compiled a short list of critical predictions about Obama’s second term that never came to pass. As pointed out, a few years ago prognosticators were confident Obama would destroy the nation. Let’s see how he fared against the criticism:
The cost of gas was supposed to raise to $6.05 per gallon
According to Legum’s report, in 2012 Mike Lee (R-UT) claimed that if Obama was reelected, the cost of gas would raise to $6.05 per gallon by the start of 2015. He predicted that the cost would go up by 5 cents for every month Obama was in office, eventually reaching $6.60.
Newt Gingrich decided to take it a bit further, claiming the cost of gas would skyrocket to $10 per gallon if Obama was reelected, stating that if he were elected, he would reverse Obama’s energy policy and drop the cost of gas to $2.50 a gallon. Today, the nationwide average for gas is $2.00 a gallon.
Unemployment was supposed to be stuck at over 8%
Mitt Romney predicted in 2012 that if Obama was reelected, we would see “chronic high unemployment continue for years or longer.” At that time, the unemployment rate was 8.1% while today it is down to 5%. Romney only pledged to bring it down to 6% if he were elected. Legum’s report also brings to attention that since January of 2013, the economy has created over 7.8 million jobs.
The stock market was supposed to crash
After Obama’s 2012 election victory, quite a few people, including Donald Trump, predicted that the stock market would crash.
The stock market and US dollar are both plunging today. Welcome to@BarackObama’s second term.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2012
Others to make this claim include Charles Bilderman, author of the “Intelligent Investing” column at Forbes, who stated that the “market selloff after Obama’s reelection was no accident, stocks are dropping with no bottom in sight.” His belief was that Obama’s policies would “crash stocks,” while Marc Faber of Bloomberg TV predicted that the stock market would drop at least 20% due to Obama’s reelection.
The Dow Jones is over 27% since Obama was reelected.
The economy was supposed to collapse
Rush Limbaugh was positive the country’s economy would collapse under Obama’s second term, even making the statement, “There’s no if about this. And it’s gonna be ugly. It’s gonna be gut wrenching, but it will happen.” He predicted this would happen by California declaring bankruptcy, meaning Obama would force states such as Texas to bail them out. California currently has a $4 billion surplus.
“I know mathematics, and I know economics. I know history. I know socialism, statism, Marxism, I know where it goes. I know what happens at the end of it.”
Limbaugh claims to know a lot. His belief was that it would take “a year and a half, two years, three years,” for the apocalypse to come. It’s been three years and two months since his prediction. Since then, the economy has grown 2% in the 3rd quarter of 2014, following a 3.9% growth in the second quarter.
As Legum states, the U.S. definitely has economic problems, such as wage growth for American workers, but with the tightening labor market, some economists are predicting a better outcome for 2016.
Legum’s report was based on a similar analysis from 2015 which has been revised and updated.